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and maybe west virginia. i'm not predicting we're going to win all those but we're on offense and we will win a number of them. and we will be a more influential group in the next congress. >> the republican leader mitch mcconnell naming 13 democrats seats there, 13, if you're counting. when i asked him for his top ten list, let's start with california. here are the new voters out tonight. boxer, 48%. fiorina, the republican challenger, 44%. and if you look at the breakdown among democrats, independents and republican, you see in the middle, boxer, 45%, fiorina, 40%, among independent voters. john avlon, the republicans can say, hey, we're competitive in california, that's a plus, but heading into the stretch, they probably hoped it was a little better than that. >> think it's going to tighten up a little bit. you need to look at the boxer/fiorina race, also whitman versus brown in the gubernatorial race. if whitman has a strong push into the fall that could help fiorina with independents in particular. clearly, the republicans are running against headwinds in california. not a lot t
was much more polite this afternoon while explaining benefits to virginia voters. >> the single biggest driver of our deficit is the escalating cost of health care. it was bankrupting families, companies and our government. so we said we had to take this on. >> so we know just a little bit about open mics and you, the big question is whether they were talking about health care in that debate -- >> health care costs are an issue up in massachusetts. remember, they had the romney plan beforehand. interesting to see the president doing that. as you know this is one of the greatest white house frustrations. they thought they would get some political plus out of the health care plan. instead, americans are deeply divided. but the white house is hoping -- let's go over here and show some of the provisions of the new law take effect actually tomorrow and the white house is hoping that as people start to see these things, maybe they'll have a better feeling about the law. one of the things that takes effect, children can now stay on their parent's coverage up until age 26. you cannot be denied
? the probability is no. there are other places, like west virginia and other places, that three weeks ago we never thought was on the radar screen so -- >> a big point everybody around her makes and some republicans who aren't so sure make is, wait a minute, you know, all of the idiots who say she can't win in november are the same idiots who said she couldn't win last night. >> right. >> first, i find it interesting that michael steele is making so much sense and he's now going against the same establishment that never liked him. and so what, now tea partiers are going to rally around steele? so, this is -- what's so intriguing about this whole deal is it sort of reminds me of democrats and alvin greene in south carolina. it's like, where did this person even come from? what is going on here? >> well, you know, they know where she came from because they spent a lot of money trying to defeat her. today, after telling all of us we're not going to give her a dime, suddenly today, right, they gave her $42,000, which is the max they're aloud. i talked to a senior republican strategist who's doing a lo
to guam for a couple weeks. >> the same argument was used on the virginia race last year, the new jersey, massachusetts race last year. what they found is all those resources, all that money didn't make up for the intensity gap for the angry independents. >> if labor day is monday and that's the curtain raiser on the stretch of it, when you say how do i want to look at the map, what is your question? >> oh, my gosh. it would be, who comes out to vote? it all comes down to that. you know, when your chart doesn't have senior voters, we know in midterm elections, 40% of the electorate are seniors and they've never been a good group for barack obama. >> they've been trending more and more republican. you can go across the country and see the ads. will it work? >> seniors today are not the seniors of 30 years ago. the democrats keep treating seniors like they're the roosevelt seniors. they're not, they're the reagan seniors. so they react to them much differently and they're trying to go back to the old playbook. they need to rewrite the playbook. >> john, i'm struck by jim marshall. i wonder
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